History of the Ukraine Vs. Russia War

The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia dates back to 2014, and includes frequent shelling and skirmishes along the border separating the two neighboring countries. It began following the Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, and is still ongoing.

On February 24th, 2022, Russia officially declared war on Ukraine leading to over one hundred civilian casualties and fleeing of tens of thousands of Ukrainians to nearby countries, such as Poland, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) country where troops from the United States are ready for assistance.

However, the question arises, why has one neighbor launched a deadly attack on the other despite the increasing number of ruins and deaths? Why has the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, completely shattered peace in the calm European region and thrown the entire continent’s security into jeopardy?

Is this World War III?

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, also being called ‘Putin’s war’ maybe World War III, as believed by several experts. According to recent polls, 71% Ukrainians believe their country is at war with their mighty neighbor. Although Kyiv was more powerful than Moscow at one point in history, today it’s in the greatest danger.

As history shows, Ukraine was under Russian rule in the 19th century. The two nations eventually became the most powerful soviet republics among a total of 15 countries, Russia overtaking Ukraine. Both neighbors established impressive defense industries, agricultural lands, and house much of the soviet nuclear arsenal currently.

However, the soviet republic collapsed in 1991, which led to the independence of Ukraine as well as Russia. Although the former inherited most of the soviet nuclear assets, it gave up the arsenal to the latter in 1994. In exchange, Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s security along their borders.

On 18th March, 2014, matters worsened quickly when Russia formally annexed Crimea as two federal Russian subjects- the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol. This led to escalation of military presence on the peninsula and increase in the number of nuclear threats, solidifying the new status quo.

Fast forward to February 24th, 2022, Russia launched a military war on Ukraine, demanding the possession of the remaining assets and land. This has forced millions of Ukrainians to leave their homes and escape to other countries, including Germany, Romania, Slovakia, Belarus, and Poland. Moreover, Sweden has accused Russia of airspace violation and NATO has increased deployment in Eastern Europe.

How the World Sees the Ukraine Russia Conflict

According to several prominent historians and politicians, Putin’s actions may initiate World War III. While commenting on the Ukraine-Russia situation, ex-US Vice President Dan Quayle says that we are on the verge of World War III. He further states:

“I hope not; it all depends on Putin.”

“If he gets control of Ukraine, and he starts to continue to move west to NATO countries, then you’re on the brink of World War Three and probably into World War Three.”

A geopolitics expert shared that she already believes that we are in World War III. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov himself is of the opinion that World War III will involve nukes. The British Queen has a speech prepared for World War III. It includes the following:

“Now this madness of war is once more spreading through the world and our brave country must again prepare itself to survive against great odds. I have never forgotten the sorrow and the pride I felt as my sister and I huddled around the nursery wireless set listening to my father’s inspiring words on that fateful day in 1939. Not for a single moment did I imagine that this solemn and awful duty would one day fall to me…the enemy is not the solider with his rifle nor even the airman prowling the skies above our cities and towns but the deadly power of abused technology.”

Elon Musk’s Role in the Ukraine Russia War

When it comes to making headlines and technology, the Tesla Chief Executive is at the forefront. Following this rule, Elon Musk was quick to extend help to Ukraine’s civilians who had their internet connections shut down by Russia, halting their contact with the rest of the world.

The billionaire decided to restore the internet connection in Ukraine by sending internet terminals that work with satellites orbiting in space. One of Elon Musk’s company, Space X, has deployed numerous satellites into the Earth’s low orbit over a period of three years to boost internet service. Currently, this service is coming in very handy in Ukraine, allowing them to share all that is going on in the country.

This internet connection, known as Starlink, can be easily used though the source is greater than 100 miles from planet Earth. The service can connect people living in secluded areas where there is poor or no internet connection, government restrictions, or, as in the case of Ukraine, the connection has been cut off.

When the internet disruptions arose in Ukraine due to Russian invasion the vice prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov of Ukraine, also the minister of digital transformation, tweeted to Musk:

“While you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine!” Mr. Fedorov wrote. “While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people!”

Following this tweet, Musk sent military trucks to Ukraine loaded with Starlink terminals. As reports sugest, more trucks are being sent to establish a wider and stronger connection. After the trucks arrived, Mr. Fedorov posted:

“Starlink — here,” he wrote and thanked Mr. Musk.

“You are most welcome,” To which, Mr. Musk replied.

The Tesla billionaire has also advised Europe to strengthen their nuclear power in a tweet on twitter. He shared:

“Hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones. This is *critical* to national and international security.”

His thoughts left several baffled as Elon Musk is a crusader for clean, sustainable energy. In response to his tweet, environmental experts at Greenpeace USA said:

“Nuclear energy has no place in a safe, clean, sustainable future. Nuclear energy is both expensive and dangerous.”

Is Elon Musk reducing or adding to the carbon print? Is he helping Ukraine tell the world what is happening or is this a way to obtain confidential information? Decide for yourself!

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Just a War or World War III?

Let’s begin this by defining world war and ticking off the checklist as set by history:

A world war is one that involves the whole world or affects the majority of it to some extent. World War l included Germany, Austria, Hungary, Turkey, Great Britain, France, Russia, Japan, and Italy. World War ll was fought by Germany, Italy, Japan, France, Great Britain, United States, and China partly.

But since it’s only Ukraine and Russia fighting, is it really a World War? While most may answer no, history suggests otherwise. All world wars started small, for instance in 1914 on the 28th of June, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Bosnia. Resultantly, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia a month later; this was followed by a domino effect. By 1918, almost all the countries involved in World War l were fighting.

This proves that though it only began with two countries and one assassination, the war spread to almost all parts of the world causing irreversible damage that exists even today. Similarly, on 1st September, 1939, Germany invaded Poland. Two days later, Britain and France launched war on Germany, again highlighting the domino effect.

History demonstrates that outbreaks don’t necessarily need to be enormous for a war to begin. The mere involvement of two countries along with damage to a life or land can easily pull in more countries and regions. While only Ukraine and Russia are presently fighting, the world seems to have taken sides when you look at the bigger picture.

Each country is either an alliance or a rival. The United Nation’s general assembly’s emergency vote favors Ukraine, demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from the former’s lands. While 5 have voted against Ukraine and 35 maintained abstention, 141 have indicated solidarity with Ukraine. The favoring countries include the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. Among the Russian supporters are Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Eritrea.

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What is Happening in Ukraine?

While several casualties are surfacing every day and the tension rises, some stories have made it to the highlights. On the 2nd of March, Slovenia’s consulate building in Kharkiv was bombed, on 3rd March Sweden accused Russia of air space violation and Ukraine opened its gates to foreign fighters, and on the 4th of March, Russia risked the whole continent’s safety by attacking a nuclear power plant. Does this mean this war will remain within the Ukraine-Russian borders or will it extend beyond the geographical limitations, bringing in all the countries around the globe?

As Russia stated earlier, the 200,000 troops that were initially deployed at the 2000 km Russia-Ukraine border were simply there for a routine military exercise. However, within days, these troops began bombing and invading the Ukrainian cities, killing dozens every day. The attacks Russia promised will never occur are taking place today in Ukraine full-force, from all directions. What began in the middle of the night on a Thursday is now happening in the day light as if it were routine.

The Unity of the Ukrainians In the Face of Terror and Injustice

Ukraine’s civilians have expressed that they woke up to a different country than what they slept in. As reported by the media, there are constant Russian strikes all over the country. According to Putin, Ukraine was never a country to begin with; a place with a population of over 44 million is not even a country apparently, but only an extension of Russia being run by the US and Neo-Nazis. When actually the truth is quite different-Ukraine is run by president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Jewish man who lost his family in the holocaust.

History proves that Ukraine had well-established cities long before Moscow, Russia’s capital, came into being. While Putin tries to prove how Ukrainians need to be saved from the West, many Russians believe they need to be protected from Putin himself. Putin’s ideology that he presented on the 21st February 2022 can be summarized as:

1. Ukraine is an extension of Russia
2. Ukraine is heavily influenced by the West
3. Ukraine is run by Neo-Nazis
4. Ukraine must be invaded so it can be saved

Minutes after this, the Russian troops and tanks entered the Ukrainian lands and their missiles flew across the Ukrainian skies. This has led Ukrainian military troops as well as civilians to fight a war against their neighbor that they never imagined. When offered the easy way out via airlift by the West, meaning USA, the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy said:

“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Many Ukrainians are said to be fighting out of love, while the Russians fight due to the fear of a said dictator. While the war demands a lot of military troops from Russia, it also requires a significant amount of money; this constant military action is causing Russia billions of dollars and affecting the economy adversely. However, unfortunately, this is not enough to stop Putin from sacrificing millions of lives.

The Possible Outcomes of the Russian Invasion in Ukraine

Undoubtedly, the world is in chaos and anarchy when it comes to the Ukraine Russia war. Although no expert can predict it correctly, let’s look at a few likely outcomes:

1. Patchy Control

Some close observers of the Ukraine Russia war expect the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to install a Russian-influenced regime in Kyiv due to his intense loathing for Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union, and the current pro-western government.

The exact timing of this is still up for debate; however, Eurasia Group’s base-case scenario suggests that Russia will gain patchy control of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro River. Additionally, after a protracted siege, Kyiv will be captured along with the establishment of a “Russian-backed puppet government.”

2. Purge and Divide?

A few of the analysts are of the opinion that Ukraine’s patchy control by Russia can lead to partitioning of the country, especially when the latter is firmly rooted in the eastern side of Ukraine along the Donbas region.

Taras Kuzio, a researcher at the Henry Jackson Society wrote expressed it an article for the Atlantic Council that Moscow may be aiming at “the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population.”

He further adds, “Putin’s apparent objective is to eradicate all vestiges of Ukrainian identity while condemning the country to a grim future as a military dictatorship locked firmly inside a new Russian Empire. This nightmarish vision tallies closely with Putin’s own stated objectives for the current military campaign along with his long record of public contempt and animosity towards Ukrainian statehood.”

3. Perpetual Conflict

Many analysts warn of insurgency, suggesting that Ukrainians will continue to fight for freedom. They will rebel against any apparent puppet regime, attempting to topple such Russian controls by any means possible or available.

Tim Ash, a close watcher of the Ukraine Russia conflict and an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management says:

”Ukrainians have had 30 years of freedom, which they relish, and how can Putin turn the clock back to 91′ [the collapse of the Soviet Union] without brutal suppression which would further make him, and his puppet regime in Kyiv, international pariahs. This is not 1945, 1956 or 1968 where Soviet troops/the NKVD [the Soviet law enforcement agency] did bludgeon civilians into submission, but 2022…Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin’s brutality for all to see.”

4. NATO vs. Russia

NATO, the western military alliance has repeatedly refused to intervene in the Ukraine Russia war, as doing so would bring it to direct conflict with Moscow, which has forewarned all countries and alliances of untold consequences if they interfere with their ‘special military operation.’

The countries existing on the EU and NATO’s eastern flank, such as Romania, Poland, and Baltic states have shown concern over the potential spread of ongoing conflict into their territories.

5. A Miracle

Perhaps all the peace lovers are hoping for the same-a miracle. They pray for the unequivocal withdrawal of the Russian armed forces from the Ukrainian lands without further bloodshed. As the Atlantic Council’s strategists Pavel, Engelke and Cimmino express:

“The determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favors the defenders.” This will result in Putin not toppling Kyiv’s government and ceasing all military operations.

~ cmx